Factiva Dow Jones & Reuters 

PD 20 August 2003 

HD Iraq - Emerging Guerrilla Warfare. 
 
BY By Peter Doynov 


LP
 

The blast in the Iraqi capital Baghdad on August 19, 2003, which claimed 20 dead, including top UN diplomat Sergio Vieira de Mello, raised one question - what is emerging in Emerging Iraq? Democracy, for sure, is the least probable answer in the list, topped by terror and guerrilla warfare. 

Oddly enough, none was prompt to take responsibility for the act so the perpetrator remained subject to controversy - it is still unclear whether the bombing was caused by elements loyal to Saddam or by imported terrorists. Still, the pattern of the attack, clearly not a suicide bombing, makes the theory of a terrorist act, al Qaeda being the preferred villain, less probable. 
 


TD
 

The U.S. troops may ridicule Saddam Hussein, posting spoof images of the ousted Iraqi leader, giving him the vision of a blonde goddess in a low-cut blouse, but they cannot hide the fact that there is not a single clue as to his whereabouts. The occupying forces had to provide a recognisable corpus delicti for Saddam's death or bring him to trial to be able to enforce security and law and order in the country. 

The increasing tension (including the bombing of the Jordanian Embassy on August 7, claiming 10 lives, the sabotage of an oil pipeline on August 16, and the sabotage of water pipes in Baghdad on August 17) is clearly aimed at discrediting U.S. ability to maintain stability. The latest bombing, the deadliest strike ever against the United Nations, deepens the problem still further. The act aims to show that even marginal participants in the processes in post-war Iraq could be next and hence to prevent the U.S. from winning the hearts of the people. The attack also complies with the aim of bringing the U.S.-initiated transition process in Iraq to a stall. The UN has been engaged not only in a humanitarian relief operation, but De Mello and others were discretely playing a vital role in aiding Paul Bremer to manage the transition of political power. A number of local dignitaries who refused even to meet with Bremer had cordial relations with De Mello. 

All the said high-profile attacks top the list of hit-and-run attacks on U.S. and allied forces, which continue to kill an American soldier on average every other day, and to injure even more. Local citizens, collaborating with the allied forces have also become targets for murder. Local mutineers eye Fallujah as a model to be followed - the U.S. forces recently pulled out of the city, located in western Iraq, leaving local police in charge after a series of ambushes and street clashes. The U.S. may have acted to decrease tension, yet in the eyes of anti-American elements it is clearly seen to have been driven out. 

Though the damage caused in Iraq is clear to be seen, the identity of the perpetrators is not always as clear. Remnants of the regime's security and intelligence services play a major role certainly and Bremer's decision to dissolve the Iraqi Army and the Ministry of Interior is most likely to have increased the number of militants. According to documents, reportedly issued before the war, operatives were instructed to join up with Islamic resistance organisations once the regime had fallen. The operatives, whose number is estimated at over 50,000, definitely have paramilitary and organisational training and access to weapons and money. Yet, they are not the only birds in town. 

The occupation of Iraq provided an excellent opportunity for al Qaeda to strengthen its positions, comparable only to the one created by the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan three decades ago. Now, as before, the presence of infidels on Muslim territory boosts the willingness of young zealots to join the organisation and to sacrifice their lives for the cause. A significant part of the young Muslim militants, who travelled to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets in the proclaimed jihad, later became the core of al Qaeda. It is quite possible for al Qaeda militants to have joined forces with die-hards loyal to Saddam, because ever since the U.S. occupied Iraq it became a focal point for all kinds of extremists, willing to fight the infidels, America, or Israel to liberate the Middle East from these evil forces. Zealots from al Qaeda, together with Baath party militants and foreign recruits are keen on keeping a state of anarchy in Iraq, backed by the fact that Afghanistan is slipping back into chaos as the revamped Taliban machine killed some 90 in the last month. 

The resistance pattern, however, suggests that the militant groups are neither pure al Qaeda, nor pure Baath party members. They form a wide mixture with motives ranging from religion-inflected nationalism and indignity of the occupation to tribal politics and feuds. Further more, militant groups are backed by the ever increasing anger of ordinary Iraqi citizens with the failure of the occupation forces to bring normality and stability. 

It is not likely that such attacks will diminish the U.S. ambition to create a new Iraq. Still, the objectives of these attacks might be just to delay the transition of power. The Bush administration vowed that violence would not derail efforts to rebuild Iraq. It was war against terror, after all, that was dubbed as the main reason for launching the campaign in Iraq. Still, the latest attacks show that keeping such a commitment may prove to be quite costly and that the U.S. could be trapped in the Zugzwang of we cannot leave, but we cannot stay forever.